Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Spain
38.5% win probability
Predicted winner
27.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.25 - 1.15
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 43%
Total goals

Spain

1624#1
UEFA
VS

Morocco

1623#2
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

38.5% 27.6% 33.8%
ESP
MAR
1
Rating Gap
1.25
Exp. Goals ESP
1.15
Exp. Goals MAR
66.1%
ESP No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.59 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 43%).

Recent Form 7W/6W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Spain 7/10, Morocco 6/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.3% of Morocco's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Spain's most recent title: 2023. Morocco's most recent title: 2025.

Penalty Shootouts 53% PSO

Shootout record: Spain: 8W-7L; Morocco: 7W-9L. Records are closely matched, no clear edge.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 1961-2022

2
ESP Win
2
Draws
0
MAR Win
6
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
127
Games Played
171
63.0%
Win %
66.7%
2.45
Goals Per Game
1.81
0.79
Goals Against / Game
0.53
46.5%
Clean Sheet %
58.5%
10.2%
Failed to Score %
19.9%
6.3%
Goalless Draws %
11.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,624
Current Rating
1,623
#1
World Ranking
#2
65.2%
Win as Favourite
56.8%
38.3%
Win as Underdog
34.7%
15
Longest Win Streak
13
35
Longest Unbeaten Run
34
1674 (2010)
Peak Rating
1632 (2026)
8W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-9L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

38.5% 27.6% 33.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 06 Dec 22 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 25 Jun 18 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 23 Nov 61 AWAY
3 - 2
FIFA World Cup
A 12 Nov 61 AWAY
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.1%
1 - 0
11.3%
0 - 1
10.5%
0 - 0
9.1%
2 - 1
8.1%
1 - 2
7.5%