Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Spain
40.4% win probability
Predicted winner
26.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.37 - 1.21
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Spain

1664#1
UEFA
VS

France

1657#2
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

40.4% 26.4% 33.2%
ESP
FRA
7
Rating Gap
1.37
Exp. Goals ESP
1.21
Exp. Goals FRA
66.8%
ESP No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Win Streak 7 games

France are currently on a 7-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.86 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 38-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 18W for Spain, 13W for France, 7 draws. Never count either side out.

Recent Form 7W/9W

France won 9 of their last 10 games; Spain won 7. Current form favours France.

Tournament Pedigree 2023

Both teams are major tournament winners. Spain's most recent title: 2023. France's most recent title: 2020.

Unbeaten Run 36 games

Spain's longest unbeaten run is 36 games vs France's 30. Spain have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

38 meeting(s) · 2008-2025

18
ESP Win
7
Draws
13
FRA Win
71
Goals For
44
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
135
Games Played
142
63.7%
Win %
68.3%
2.41
Goals Per Game
2.15
0.76
Goals Against / Game
0.85
47.4%
Clean Sheet %
43.7%
10.4%
Failed to Score %
14.8%
6.7%
Goalless Draws %
7.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,664
Current Rating
1,657
#1
World Ranking
#2
65.3%
Win as Favourite
60.0%
38.6%
Win as Underdog
33.7%
15
Longest Win Streak
14
36
Longest Unbeaten Run
30
1674 (2010)
Peak Rating
1657 (2026)
8W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

40.4% 26.4% 33.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 05 Jun 25 NEUTRAL
5 - 4
UEFA Nations League
H 09 Jul 24 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
UEFA European Championship
A 10 Oct 21 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
UEFA Nations League
A 28 Mar 17 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
H 04 Sep 14 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
A 26 Mar 13 AWAY
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup
D 16 Oct 12 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 23 Jun 12 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
UEFA European Championship
A 03 Mar 10 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
H 06 Feb 08 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
10.4%
0 - 1
9.2%
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
7.6%
0 - 0
7.6%