Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Zambia
36.3% win probability
Predicted winner
28.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.18 - 1.17
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Zambia

1350#149
CAF
VS

Zimbabwe

1372#134
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

36.3% 28.0% 35.7%
ZAM
ZIM
23
Rating Gap
1.18
Exp. Goals ZAM
1.17
Exp. Goals ZIM
64.3%
ZAM No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 0W/4W

Zimbabwe won 4 of their last 10 games; Zambia won 0. Current form favours Zimbabwe.

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 55-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 17W for Zambia, 13W for Zimbabwe, 25 draws. Never count either side out.

Tournament Pedigree 2023

Both teams are major tournament winners. Zambia's most recent title: 2023. Zimbabwe's most recent title: 2018.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 2.82 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Rating Trajectory +36 pts

Zimbabwe are gaining momentum recently (+36 pts). Zambia have moved -16 pts in the same window.

Penalty Shootouts 53% PSO

Shootout record: Zambia: 19W-17L; Zimbabwe: 6W-15L. Edge goes to Zambia if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

55 meeting(s) · 2017-2026

17
ZAM Win
25
Draws
13
ZIM Win
61
Goals For
56
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
153
Games Played
117
35.3%
Win %
28.2%
1.21
Goals Per Game
1.15
1.29
Goals Against / Game
1.09
28.8%
Clean Sheet %
32.5%
32.7%
Failed to Score %
40.2%
10.5%
Goalless Draws %
15.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,350
Current Rating
1,372
#149
World Ranking
#134
48.3%
Win as Favourite
49.8%
27.1%
Win as Underdog
24.4%
7
Longest Win Streak
7
17
Longest Unbeaten Run
14
1544 (1994)
Peak Rating
1508 (2005)
19W-17L
Penalty Shootouts
6W-15L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

36.3% 28.0% 35.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly Tournament
A 30 Jun 24 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
COSAFA Cup
D 23 Mar 24 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
Friendly
A 29 Mar 21 AWAY
0 - 2
Africa Cup of Nations
A 19 Nov 19 AWAY
1 - 2
Africa Cup of Nations
D 05 Jun 19 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
COSAFA Cup
A 09 Jun 18 NEUTRAL
2 - 4
COSAFA Cup
D 21 Mar 18 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly Tournament
A 09 Jul 17 NEUTRAL
1 - 3
COSAFA Cup
D 26 Mar 17 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.2%
1 - 0
11.3%
0 - 1
11.2%
0 - 0
9.6%
2 - 1
7.8%
1 - 2
7.7%