Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Ghana
45.2% win probability
Predicted winner
26.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.09 - 1.45
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Wales

1423#80
UEFA
VS

Ghana

1425#76
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

28.6% 26.2% 45.2%
WAL
GHA
2
Rating Gap
1.09
Exp. Goals WAL
1.45
Exp. Goals GHA
54.8%
WAL No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 10pp

Ghana keep 37.3% clean sheets vs Wales's 27.2%, a 10pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 1987

Both teams are major tournament winners. Wales's most recent title: 1951. Ghana's most recent title: 1987.

Unbeaten Run 22 games

Ghana's longest unbeaten run is 22 games vs Wales's 10. Ghana have shown greater resilience historically.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 2.80 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Penalty Shootouts 37% PSO

Shootout record: Wales: 0W-2L; Ghana: 7W-12L. Edge goes to Ghana if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
WAL Win
1
Draws
0
GHA Win
1
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
110
Games Played
122
39.1%
Win %
36.1%
1.25
Goals Per Game
1.22
1.06
Goals Against / Game
1.05
37.3%
Clean Sheet %
35.2%
29.1%
Failed to Score %
34.4%
10.9%
Goalless Draws %
11.5%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,423
Current Rating
1,425
#80
World Ranking
#76
54.8%
Win as Favourite
51.6%
20.8%
Win as Underdog
32.7%
6
Longest Win Streak
10
10
Longest Unbeaten Run
22
1499 (2021)
Peak Rating
1542 (2008)
0W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-12L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

28.6% 26.2% 45.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 02 Jun 26 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
11.4%
1 - 2
9.0%
1 - 0
8.6%
0 - 2
8.2%
0 - 0
7.9%