Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Bosnia and Herzegovina
37.7% win probability
Predicted winner
26.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.28 - 1.32
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Wales

1423#80
UEFA
VS
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

35.9% 26.4% 37.7%
WAL
BIH
16
Rating Gap
1.28
Exp. Goals WAL
1.32
Exp. Goals BIH
62.3%
WAL No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 2W-0W

Bosnia and Herzegovina hold the historical edge: 2W-3D-0L across 5 meetings.

Recent Form 3W/2W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Wales 3/10, Bosnia and Herzegovina 2/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 1951

Wales have a major tournament title to their name; Bosnia and Herzegovina do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.63 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Rating Trajectory +41 pts

Bosnia and Herzegovina are gaining momentum recently (+41 pts). Wales have moved -27 pts in the same window.

Penalty Shootouts 75% PSO

Shootout record: Wales: 0W-2L; Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3W-1L. Edge goes to Bosnia and Herzegovina if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 2003-2026

0
WAL Win
3
Draws
2
BIH Win
3
Goals For
7
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
110
Games Played
101
39.1%
Win %
32.7%
1.25
Goals Per Game
1.27
1.06
Goals Against / Game
1.35
37.3%
Clean Sheet %
31.7%
29.1%
Failed to Score %
32.7%
10.9%
Goalless Draws %
10.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,423
Current Rating
1,407
#80
World Ranking
#99
54.8%
Win as Favourite
58.1%
20.8%
Win as Underdog
20.3%
6
Longest Win Streak
5
10
Longest Unbeaten Run
9
1499 (2021)
Peak Rating
1511 (2013)
0W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

35.9% 26.4% 37.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 26 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 10 Oct 15 AWAY
2 - 0
UEFA European Championship
D 10 Oct 14 AWAY
0 - 0
UEFA European Championship
A 15 Aug 12 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
D 12 Feb 03 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.6%
0 - 1
9.8%
1 - 0
9.5%
1 - 2
8.3%
2 - 1
8.0%
0 - 0
7.5%