Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Bonaire
40.1% win probability
Predicted winner
25.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.34 - 1.46
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Total goals

Virgin Islands

1296#189
CONCACAF
VS

Bonaire

1289#193
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

34.7% 25.2% 40.1%
VGB
BON
6
Rating Gap
1.34
Exp. Goals VGB
1.46
Exp. Goals BON
59.9%
VGB No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Recent Form 4W/2W

Virgin Islands won 4 of their last 10 games; Bonaire won 2. Current form favours Virgin Islands.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 2.19 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 53%).

Rating Trajectory +44 pts

Virgin Islands are gaining momentum recently (+44 pts). Bonaire have moved -49 pts in the same window.

Penalty Shootouts 100% PSO

Shootout record: Virgin Islands: 3W-0L; Bonaire: 1W-0L. Records are closely matched, no clear edge.

Rating Gap 6 pts

Virgin Islands hold a 6-point rating edge: roughly 0.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 2019-2026

1
VGB Win
0
Draws
3
BON Win
8
Goals For
10
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
52
Games Played
40
13.5%
Win %
27.5%
0.92
Goals Per Game
1.18
2.60
Goals Against / Game
2.28
11.5%
Clean Sheet %
12.5%
51.9%
Failed to Score %
32.5%
5.8%
Goalless Draws %
0.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,296
Current Rating
1,289
#189
World Ranking
#193
39.3%
Win as Favourite
35.5%
11.2%
Win as Underdog
19.0%
2
Longest Win Streak
2
7
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1349 (2008)
Peak Rating
1408 (2022)
3W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

34.7% 25.2% 40.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 06 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Friendly
A 13 Oct 19 NEUTRAL
3 - 4
CONCACAF Nations League
H 06 Sep 19 NEUTRAL
4 - 2
CONCACAF Nations League
A 24 Mar 19 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
CONCACAF Gold Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 1
8.9%
1 - 2
8.7%
1 - 0
8.2%
2 - 1
8.0%
0 - 2
6.5%