Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Uzbekistan
74.3% win probability
Predicted winner
18.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.01 - 0.46
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Uzbekistan

1517#27
AFC
VS

Gabon

1403#104
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

74.3% 18.3% 7.4%
UZB
GAB
115
Rating Gap
2.01
Exp. Goals UZB
0.46
Exp. Goals GAB
92.6%
UZB No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 115 pts

Uzbekistan hold a 115-point rating edge: roughly 17.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 5W/3W

Uzbekistan won 5 of their last 10 games; Gabon won 3. Current form favours Uzbekistan.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Uzbekistan's most recent title: 2025. Gabon's most recent title: 1999.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 2.89 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

Underdog Record 26% W

Gabon have won 26% of games entering as underdogs (63W from 247). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
UZB Win
0
Draws
0
GAB Win
3
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
132
Games Played
91
54.5%
Win %
33.0%
1.53
Goals Per Game
1.12
0.84
Goals Against / Game
1.22
49.2%
Clean Sheet %
34.1%
28.0%
Failed to Score %
31.9%
9.8%
Goalless Draws %
15.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,517
Current Rating
1,403
#27
World Ranking
#104
60.4%
Win as Favourite
45.6%
20.6%
Win as Underdog
25.5%
8
Longest Win Streak
4
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
11
1563 (1994)
Peak Rating
1467 (2012)
1W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
8W-11L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

74.3% 18.3% 7.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 27 Mar 26 AWAY
3 - 1
FIFA Series

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
17.1%
1 - 0
17.0%
3 - 0
11.5%
0 - 0
8.5%
2 - 1
7.8%
1 - 1
7.8%