Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Uzbekistan
39.8% win probability
Predicted winner
28.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.22 - 1.06
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 40%
Total goals

Uzbekistan

1540#16
AFC
VS

Colombia

1540#15
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

39.8% 28.4% 31.8%
UZB
COL
0
Rating Gap
1.22
Exp. Goals UZB
1.06
Exp. Goals COL
68.2%
UZB No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

First Meeting 0 games

Uzbekistan and Colombia have never faced each other. The prediction relies entirely on current ratings.

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Uzbekistan 6/10, Colombia 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goalless Draw Risk 12% 0-0

12.2% of Colombia's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 3.01 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 40%).

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Uzbekistan's most recent title: 2025. Colombia's most recent title: 2001.

Unbeaten Run 28 games

Colombia's longest unbeaten run is 28 games vs Uzbekistan's 19. Colombia have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

No previous meetings between these teams

No previous meetings between these teams

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
130
Games Played
122
55.4%
Win %
50.0%
1.55
Goals Per Game
1.52
0.82
Goals Against / Game
0.88
50.0%
Clean Sheet %
48.4%
27.7%
Failed to Score %
25.4%
10.0%
Goalless Draws %
16.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,540
Current Rating
1,540
#16
World Ranking
#15
60.6%
Win as Favourite
50.7%
20.8%
Win as Underdog
29.4%
8
Longest Win Streak
10
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
28
1563 (1994)
Peak Rating
1604 (2024)
1W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

39.8% 28.4% 31.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.2%
1 - 0
12.4%
0 - 1
10.8%
0 - 0
10.2%
2 - 1
8.1%
2 - 0
7.6%