Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

United States of America
68.8% win probability
Predicted winner
20.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.97 - 0.64
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

United States of America

1505#31
CONCACAF
VS
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

68.8% 20.0% 11.2%
USA
BIH
100
Rating Gap
1.97
Exp. Goals USA
0.64
Exp. Goals BIH
88.8%
USA No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 5W/2W

United States of America won 5 of their last 10 games; Bosnia and Herzegovina won 2. Current form favours United States of America.

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 100 pts

United States of America hold a 100-point rating edge: roughly 14.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2023

United States of America have a major tournament title to their name; Bosnia and Herzegovina do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.90 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Underdog Record 20% W

Bosnia and Herzegovina have won 20% of games entering as underdogs (33W from 161). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 2013-2026

3
USA Win
1
Draws
0
BIH Win
7
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
180
Games Played
104
56.1%
Win %
32.7%
1.96
Goals Per Game
1.27
0.93
Goals Against / Game
1.38
44.4%
Clean Sheet %
30.8%
19.4%
Failed to Score %
32.7%
5.0%
Goalless Draws %
10.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,505
Current Rating
1,405
#31
World Ranking
#99
56.1%
Win as Favourite
58.1%
29.4%
Win as Underdog
20.5%
12
Longest Win Streak
5
16
Longest Unbeaten Run
9
1614 (2021)
Peak Rating
1511 (2013)
5W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

68.8% 20.0% 11.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 01 Jul 26 AWAY
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 18 Dec 21 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
D 28 Jan 18 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
A 14 Aug 13 AWAY
3 - 4
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
14.5%
2 - 0
14.3%
3 - 0
9.3%
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 1
9.1%
0 - 0
7.4%