Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Belgium
38.9% win probability
Predicted winner
26.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.29 - 1.37
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

United States of America

1516#31
CONCACAF
VS

Belgium

1534#20
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

35.1% 26.0% 38.9%
USA
BEL
19
Rating Gap
1.29
Exp. Goals USA
1.37
Exp. Goals BEL
61.1%
USA No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 6W-1W

Belgium hold the historical edge: 6W-0D-1L across 7 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 3.34 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).

Recent Form 6W/7W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: United States of America 6/10, Belgium 7/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2023

United States of America have a major tournament title to their name; Belgium do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Unbeaten Run 24 games

Belgium's longest unbeaten run is 24 games vs United States of America's 16. Belgium have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 100% PSO

Shootout record: United States of America: 5W-5L; Belgium: 2W-0L. Edge goes to Belgium if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 1930-2026

1
USA Win
0
Draws
6
BEL Win
8
Goals For
15
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
176
Games Played
127
56.2%
Win %
64.6%
1.97
Goals Per Game
2.46
0.91
Goals Against / Game
0.89
44.3%
Clean Sheet %
44.9%
19.9%
Failed to Score %
11.8%
5.1%
Goalless Draws %
3.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,516
Current Rating
1,534
#31
World Ranking
#20
56.0%
Win as Favourite
59.2%
29.4%
Win as Underdog
30.3%
12
Longest Win Streak
12
16
Longest Unbeaten Run
24
1614 (2021)
Peak Rating
1634 (2021)
5W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

35.1% 26.0% 38.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 28 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 5
Friendly
H 01 Jul 14 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 29 May 13 AWAY
2 - 4
Friendly
H 06 Sep 11 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
H 25 Feb 98 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly
H 22 Apr 95 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
H 13 Jul 30 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 1
9.6%
1 - 0
9.0%
1 - 2
8.5%
2 - 1
8.0%
0 - 0
7.0%