Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Uruguay
43.1% win probability
Predicted winner
27.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.32 - 1.04
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Uruguay

1509#32
CONMEBOL
VS

Cabo Verde

1480#38
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

43.1% 27.6% 29.3%
URU
CPV
29
Rating Gap
1.32
Exp. Goals URU
1.04
Exp. Goals CPV
70.7%
URU No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Tournament Pedigree 2011

Uruguay have a major tournament title to their name; Cabo Verde do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goalless Draw Risk 14% 0-0

13.6% of Cabo Verde's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Unbeaten Run 18 games

Uruguay's longest unbeaten run is 18 games vs Cabo Verde's 11. Uruguay have shown greater resilience historically.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 2.80 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Rating Gap 29 pts

Uruguay hold a 29-point rating edge: roughly 4.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
URU Win
1
Draws
0
CPV Win
2
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
119
Games Played
93
45.4%
Win %
40.9%
1.45
Goals Per Game
1.15
0.92
Goals Against / Game
1.01
47.1%
Clean Sheet %
38.7%
30.3%
Failed to Score %
36.6%
16.0%
Goalless Draws %
12.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,509
Current Rating
1,480
#32
World Ranking
#38
55.7%
Win as Favourite
54.7%
29.1%
Win as Underdog
26.1%
7
Longest Win Streak
3
18
Longest Unbeaten Run
11
1585 (2024)
Peak Rating
1489 (2024)
10W-9L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

43.1% 27.6% 29.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 21 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.0%
1 - 0
12.5%
0 - 1
9.8%
0 - 0
9.5%
2 - 1
8.6%
2 - 0
8.3%