Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Ukraine
60.7% win probability
Predicted winner
23.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.67 - 0.70
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Ukraine

1463#46
UEFA
VS

Albania

1395#107
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

60.7% 23.9% 15.4%
UKR
ALB
68
Rating Gap
1.67
Exp. Goals UKR
0.70
Exp. Goals ALB
84.6%
UKR No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 7W-1W

Ukraine hold the historical edge: 7W-1D-1L across 9 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 10pp

Ukraine keep 39.5% clean sheets vs Albania's 30.0%, a 10pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Ukraine 6/10, Albania 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 1946

Albania have a major tournament title to their name; Ukraine do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 68 pts

Ukraine hold a 68-point rating edge: roughly 10.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 20% W

Albania have won 20% of games entering as underdogs (58W from 294). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

9 meeting(s) · 1997-2026

7
UKR Win
1
Draws
1
ALB Win
17
Goals For
7
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
109
Games Played
106
47.7%
Win %
37.7%
1.44
Goals Per Game
1.08
1.21
Goals Against / Game
1.16
32.1%
Clean Sheet %
36.8%
22.9%
Failed to Score %
39.6%
6.4%
Goalless Draws %
9.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,463
Current Rating
1,395
#46
World Ranking
#107
57.4%
Win as Favourite
49.5%
24.8%
Win as Underdog
19.7%
6
Longest Win Streak
5
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
8
1522 (2013)
Peak Rating
1442 (2025)
3W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

60.7% 23.9% 15.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly
A 19 Nov 24 AWAY
1 - 2
UEFA Nations League
A 07 Sep 24 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
UEFA Nations League
A 03 Jun 18 NEUTRAL
1 - 4
Friendly
A 03 Jun 16 NEUTRAL
1 - 3
Friendly
D 08 Oct 05 AWAY
2 - 2
FIFA World Cup
A 09 Feb 05 AWAY
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 20 Aug 97 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 29 Mar 97 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
15.6%
2 - 0
13.0%
1 - 1
10.9%
0 - 0
9.4%
2 - 1
9.1%
3 - 0
7.2%