Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Türkiye
38.3% win probability
Predicted winner
26.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.34 - 1.27
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Türkiye

1522#24
UEFA
VS

United States of America

1519#28
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

38.3% 26.3% 35.4%
TUR
USA
4
Rating Gap
1.34
Exp. Goals TUR
1.27
Exp. Goals USA
64.6%
TUR No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.44 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Recent Form 7W/6W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Türkiye 7/10, United States of America 6/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2023

United States of America have a major tournament title to their name; Türkiye do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Unbeaten Run 16 games

United States of America's longest unbeaten run is 16 games vs Türkiye's 8. United States of America have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 50% PSO

Shootout record: Türkiye: 0W-0L; United States of America: 5W-5L. Edge goes to United States of America if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2025-2026

2
TUR Win
0
Draws
0
USA Win
5
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
50
Games Played
178
60.0%
Win %
56.2%
1.92
Goals Per Game
1.97
1.28
Goals Against / Game
0.92
32.0%
Clean Sheet %
44.4%
20.0%
Failed to Score %
19.7%
6.0%
Goalless Draws %
5.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,522
Current Rating
1,519
#24
World Ranking
#28
74.2%
Win as Favourite
55.9%
36.8%
Win as Underdog
29.6%
4
Longest Win Streak
12
8
Longest Unbeaten Run
16
1542 (2026)
Peak Rating
1614 (2021)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
5W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

38.3% 26.3% 35.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 25 Jun 26 AWAY
3 - 2
FIFA World Cup
A 07 Jun 25 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.5%
1 - 0
9.8%
0 - 1
9.4%
2 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
8.0%
0 - 0
7.4%