Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Japan
83.4% win probability
Predicted winner
13.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.27 - 2.29
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Tunisia

1452#57
CAF
VS

Japan

1600#6
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

3.2% 13.4% 83.4%
TUN
JPN
148
Rating Gap
0.27
Exp. Goals TUN
2.29
Exp. Goals JPN
16.6%
TUN No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 1W/7W

Japan won 7 of their last 10 games; Tunisia won 1. Current form favours Japan.

H2H Dominance 6W-1W

Japan hold the historical edge: 6W-0D-1L across 7 meetings.

Underdog Record 31% W

Tunisia have won 31% of games entering as underdogs (94W from 303). A strong record against the odds.

Rating Gap 148 pts

Japan hold a 148-point rating edge: roughly 22.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.19 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Tunisia's most recent title: 2010. Japan's most recent title: 2024.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 1996-2026

1
TUN Win
0
Draws
6
JPN Win
3
Goals For
12
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
147
Games Played
154
50.3%
Win %
67.5%
1.38
Goals Per Game
2.60
0.85
Goals Against / Game
0.76
46.9%
Clean Sheet %
51.3%
31.3%
Failed to Score %
14.3%
11.6%
Goalless Draws %
3.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,452
Current Rating
1,600
#57
World Ranking
#6
50.6%
Win as Favourite
60.3%
31.0%
Win as Underdog
25.8%
7
Longest Win Streak
11
12
Longest Unbeaten Run
20
1554 (2022)
Peak Rating
1617 (2024)
10W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-6L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

3.2% 13.4% 83.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 20 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 4
FIFA World Cup
H 17 Oct 23 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly Tournament
A 14 Jun 22 AWAY
0 - 3
Friendly Tournament
H 27 Mar 15 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly Tournament
A 08 Oct 03 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
H 14 Jun 02 AWAY
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 13 Oct 96 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
20.2%
0 - 1
17.7%
0 - 3
15.4%
0 - 4
8.8%
0 - 0
7.7%
1 - 2
5.5%