Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Sri Lanka
53.1% win probability
Predicted winner
24.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.03 - 1.70
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Total goals

Chinese Taipei

1260#208
AFC
VS

Sri Lanka

1332#163
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

22.9% 24.1% 53.1%
TPE
SRI
72
Rating Gap
1.03
Exp. Goals TPE
1.70
Exp. Goals SRI
47.0%
TPE No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 2W/5W

Sri Lanka won 5 of their last 10 games; Chinese Taipei won 2. Current form favours Sri Lanka.

H2H Dominance 5W-0W

Sri Lanka hold the historical edge: 5W-1D-0L across 6 meetings.

Tournament Pedigree 1995

Sri Lanka have a major tournament title to their name; Chinese Taipei do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 72 pts

Sri Lanka hold a 72-point rating edge: roughly 10.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 15% W

Chinese Taipei have won 15% of games entering as underdogs (23W from 157). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 2.18 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 51%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 2003-2026

0
TPE Win
1
Draws
5
SRI Win
6
Goals For
15
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
86
Games Played
68
30.2%
Win %
14.7%
1.27
Goals Per Game
0.71
2.38
Goals Against / Game
2.07
17.4%
Clean Sheet %
14.7%
32.6%
Failed to Score %
60.3%
1.2%
Goalless Draws %
7.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,260
Current Rating
1,332
#208
World Ranking
#163
54.7%
Win as Favourite
42.3%
14.6%
Win as Underdog
11.6%
5
Longest Win Streak
3
5
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1383 (2018)
Peak Rating
1371 (2008)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

22.9% 24.1% 53.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 31 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 3
AFC Asian Cup
H 10 Jun 25 AWAY
3 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
H 06 Apr 09 AWAY
2 - 1
AFC Challenge Cup
D 06 Apr 08 AWAY
2 - 2
AFC Challenge Cup
H 08 Apr 06 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
AFC Challenge Cup
H 25 Mar 03 AWAY
2 - 1
AFC Asian Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.4%
0 - 1
11.1%
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 2
9.4%
1 - 0
6.7%
0 - 0
6.6%