Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Togo
41.5% win probability
Predicted winner
27.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.32 - 1.11
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 44%
Total goals

Togo

1402#105
CAF
VS

Benin

1396#108
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

41.5% 27.2% 31.3%
TOG
BEN
6
Rating Gap
1.32
Exp. Goals TOG
1.11
Exp. Goals BEN
68.7%
TOG No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 13W-4W

Togo hold the historical edge: 13W-11D-4L across 28 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 2.03 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 44%).

Penalty Shootouts 67% PSO

Shootout record: Togo: 3W-3L; Benin: 4W-2L. Edge goes to Benin if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Gap 6 pts

Togo hold a 6-point rating edge: roughly 0.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 3W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Togo 3/10, Benin 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Peak Rating 1498

Togo peaked at 1498 (in 2005); Benin peaked at 1442 (in 2021). Togo hold the higher all-time ceiling.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

28 meeting(s) · 2017-2026

13
TOG Win
11
Draws
4
BEN Win
40
Goals For
23
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
100
Games Played
96
27.0%
Win %
32.3%
1.12
Goals Per Game
1.02
1.17
Goals Against / Game
1.17
30.0%
Clean Sheet %
29.2%
33.0%
Failed to Score %
31.2%
10.0%
Goalless Draws %
7.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,402
Current Rating
1,396
#105
World Ranking
#108
44.4%
Win as Favourite
43.0%
25.8%
Win as Underdog
16.8%
5
Longest Win Streak
3
12
Longest Unbeaten Run
8
1498 (2005)
Peak Rating
1442 (2021)
3W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

41.5% 27.2% 31.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 09 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
5 - 1
Friendly
D 02 Nov 24 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
African Nations Championship
H 25 Oct 24 AWAY
2 - 0
African Nations Championship
D 29 Mar 22 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly
A 19 Aug 21 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
H 04 Aug 19 AWAY
1 - 0
African Nations Championship
D 28 Jul 19 AWAY
0 - 0
African Nations Championship
H 24 Mar 19 AWAY
2 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
D 09 Sep 18 AWAY
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
D 23 Jul 17 AWAY
1 - 1
African Nations Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.9%
1 - 0
11.6%
0 - 1
9.7%
0 - 0
8.8%
2 - 1
8.5%
2 - 0
7.7%