Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Timor-Leste
46.9% win probability
Predicted winner
25.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.54 - 1.13
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

Timor-Leste

1286#195
AFC
VS

Brunei

1246#214
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

46.9% 25.3% 27.7%
TLS
BRU
41
Rating Gap
1.54
Exp. Goals TLS
1.13
Exp. Goals BRU
72.2%
TLS No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 13-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 6W for Timor-Leste, 6W for Brunei, 1 draws. Never count either side out.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 1.69 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).

Recent Form 3W/1W

Timor-Leste won 3 of their last 10 games; Brunei won 1. Current form favours Timor-Leste.

Rating Trajectory +32 pts

Timor-Leste are gaining momentum recently (+32 pts). Brunei have moved -71 pts in the same window.

Underdog Record 9% W

Brunei have won 9% of games entering as underdogs (9W from 97). A strong record against the odds.

Rating Gap 41 pts

Timor-Leste hold a 41-point rating edge: roughly 6.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

13 meeting(s) · 2016-2026

6
TLS Win
1
Draws
6
BRU Win
20
Goals For
23
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
56
Games Played
46
14.3%
Win %
28.3%
0.86
Goals Per Game
0.91
3.07
Goals Against / Game
3.00
12.5%
Clean Sheet %
17.4%
41.1%
Failed to Score %
52.2%
3.6%
Goalless Draws %
2.2%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,286
Current Rating
1,246
#195
World Ranking
#214
20.0%
Win as Favourite
31.9%
12.5%
Win as Underdog
9.3%
2
Longest Win Streak
5
2
Longest Unbeaten Run
5
1329 (2014)
Peak Rating
1349 (1993)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

46.9% 25.3% 27.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 09 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 1
AFF Championship
A 02 Jun 26 AWAY
0 - 3
AFF Championship
D 15 Oct 24 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
AFF Championship
A 08 Oct 24 AWAY
0 - 1
AFF Championship
H 08 Nov 22 AWAY
1 - 0
AFF Championship
H 05 Nov 22 AWAY
6 - 2
AFF Championship
H 08 Sep 18 AWAY
1 - 0
AFF Championship
H 01 Sep 18 NEUTRAL
3 - 1
AFF Championship
H 02 Nov 16 NEUTRAL
4 - 0
AFC Solidarity Cup
H 15 Oct 16 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
AFF Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.0%
1 - 0
10.7%
2 - 1
9.3%
2 - 0
8.3%
0 - 1
7.8%
0 - 0
6.9%