Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Thailand
70.0% win probability
Predicted winner
18.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.16 - 0.75
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.9
Over 2.5: 56%
Total goals

Thailand

1470#46
AFC
VS

Turkmenistan

1373#134
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

70.0% 18.5% 11.5%
THA
TKM
98
Rating Gap
2.16
Exp. Goals THA
0.75
Exp. Goals TKM
88.5%
THA No Defeat
2.9
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 98 pts

Thailand hold a 98-point rating edge: roughly 14.7% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 6W/4W

Thailand won 6 of their last 10 games; Turkmenistan won 4. Current form favours Thailand.

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Thailand have a major tournament title to their name; Turkmenistan do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.9 xG

Combined avg of 3.09 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.9 (Over 2.5 probability: 56%).

Underdog Record 15% W

Turkmenistan have won 15% of games entering as underdogs (14W from 91). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 1998-2026

2
THA Win
1
Draws
1
TKM Win
7
Goals For
7
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
145
Games Played
64
44.1%
Win %
29.7%
1.61
Goals Per Game
1.08
1.20
Goals Against / Game
1.73
35.9%
Clean Sheet %
12.5%
24.8%
Failed to Score %
37.5%
7.6%
Goalless Draws %
4.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,470
Current Rating
1,373
#46
World Ranking
#134
56.4%
Win as Favourite
60.7%
21.4%
Win as Underdog
15.4%
9
Longest Win Streak
4
21
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1541 (1996)
Peak Rating
1515 (1993)
12W-10L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

70.0% 18.5% 11.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
H 10 Jun 25 AWAY
3 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
H 27 May 22 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
D 21 Nov 98 AWAY
3 - 3
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
12.8%
1 - 0
11.8%
2 - 1
9.5%
3 - 0
9.2%
1 - 1
8.8%
3 - 1
6.9%