Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Thailand
90.6% win probability
Predicted winner
7.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.88 - 0.23
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.1
Over 2.5: 60%
Total goals

Thailand

1502#33
AFC
VS

Myanmar

1347#159
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

90.6% 7.9% 1.5%
THA
MYA
155
Rating Gap
2.88
Exp. Goals THA
0.23
Exp. Goals MYA
98.5%
THA No Defeat
3.1
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 18W-0W

Thailand hold the historical edge: 18W-5D-0L across 23 meetings.

Rating Gap 155 pts

Thailand hold a 155-point rating edge: roughly 23.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Thailand keep 31.3% clean sheets vs Myanmar's 22.2%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Thailand's most recent title: 2024. Myanmar's most recent title: 2006.

Goal Patterns 3.1 xG

Combined avg of 2.92 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 3.1 (Over 2.5 probability: 60%).

Underdog Record 17% W

Myanmar have won 17% of games entering as underdogs (29W from 173). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

23 meeting(s) · 2011-2026

18
THA Win
5
Draws
0
MYA Win
71
Goals For
14
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
157
Games Played
115
45.2%
Win %
27.0%
1.64
Goals Per Game
1.10
1.18
Goals Against / Game
2.44
36.9%
Clean Sheet %
20.0%
23.6%
Failed to Score %
45.2%
7.0%
Goalless Draws %
7.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,502
Current Rating
1,347
#33
World Ranking
#159
56.4%
Win as Favourite
60.8%
22.1%
Win as Underdog
16.8%
9
Longest Win Streak
6
21
Longest Unbeaten Run
8
1540 (1996)
Peak Rating
1420 (2010)
14W-11L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

90.6% 7.9% 1.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 08 Aug 26
2 - 0
ASEAN Championship
H 11 Dec 22
6 - 0
Friendly
H 11 Dec 21NEUTRAL
4 - 0
ASEAN Championship
A 05 Oct 17
1 - 3
Friendly
H 08 Dec 16
4 - 0
ASEAN Championship
A 04 Dec 16
0 - 2
ASEAN Championship
H 29 Nov 14NEUTRAL
2 - 0
ASEAN Championship
A 27 Nov 12
0 - 4
ASEAN Championship
D 15 Jul 11
1 - 1
Friendly
H 14 Jul 11
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
18.5%
3 - 0
17.8%
1 - 0
12.9%
4 - 0
12.8%
5 - 0
7.4%
0 - 0
4.5%