Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Thailand
84.8% win probability
Predicted winner
11.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.62 - 0.40
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.0
Over 2.5: 58%
Total goals

Thailand

1470#41
AFC
VS

Myanmar

1335#161
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

84.8% 11.5% 3.8%
THA
MYA
135
Rating Gap
2.62
Exp. Goals THA
0.40
Exp. Goals MYA
96.3%
THA No Defeat
3.0
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 17W-0W

Thailand hold the historical edge: 17W-5D-0L across 22 meetings.

Rating Gap 135 pts

Thailand hold a 135-point rating edge: roughly 20.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Thailand 6/10, Myanmar 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Thailand's most recent title: 2024. Myanmar's most recent title: 2006.

Goal Patterns 3.0 xG

Combined avg of 2.89 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 3.0 (Over 2.5 probability: 58%).

Underdog Record 15% W

Myanmar have won 15% of games entering as underdogs (26W from 169). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

22 meeting(s) · 2007-2022

17
THA Win
5
Draws
0
MYA Win
69
Goals For
14
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
145
Games Played
108
44.1%
Win %
25.9%
1.61
Goals Per Game
1.04
1.20
Goals Against / Game
2.49
35.9%
Clean Sheet %
20.4%
24.8%
Failed to Score %
45.4%
7.6%
Goalless Draws %
8.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,470
Current Rating
1,335
#41
World Ranking
#161
56.5%
Win as Favourite
64.1%
21.3%
Win as Underdog
15.4%
9
Longest Win Streak
6
21
Longest Unbeaten Run
8
1541 (1996)
Peak Rating
1415 (2010)
12W-10L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

84.8% 11.5% 3.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 11 Dec 22 AWAY
6 - 0
Friendly
H 11 Dec 21 NEUTRAL
4 - 0
AFF Championship
A 05 Oct 17 AWAY
1 - 3
Friendly
H 08 Dec 16 AWAY
4 - 0
AFF Championship
A 04 Dec 16 AWAY
0 - 2
AFF Championship
H 29 Nov 14 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
AFF Championship
H 27 Nov 12 AWAY
4 - 0
AFF Championship
D 15 Jul 11 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 14 Jul 11 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
D 12 Jan 07 AWAY
1 - 1
AFF Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
16.7%
3 - 0
14.6%
1 - 0
12.8%
4 - 0
9.6%
2 - 1
6.7%
3 - 1
5.9%