Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Sweden
36.9% win probability
Predicted winner
26.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.30 - 1.29
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Sweden

1468#48
UEFA
VS

Tunisia

1479#41
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

36.9% 26.5% 36.6%
SWE
TUN
11
Rating Gap
1.30
Exp. Goals SWE
1.29
Exp. Goals TUN
63.4%
SWE No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 3W-1W

Sweden hold the historical edge: 3W-1D-1L across 5 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.40 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Tournament Pedigree 2013

Both teams are major tournament winners. Sweden's most recent title: 2013. Tunisia's most recent title: 2010.

Unbeaten Run 18 games

Sweden's longest unbeaten run is 18 games vs Tunisia's 12. Sweden have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 59% PSO

Shootout record: Sweden: 3W-3L; Tunisia: 10W-7L. Records are closely matched, no clear edge.

Rating Trajectory -1 pts

Sweden are gaining momentum recently (-1 pts). Tunisia have moved -51 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 1976-2026

3
SWE Win
1
Draws
1
TUN Win
8
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
129
Games Played
145
48.8%
Win %
51.0%
1.67
Goals Per Game
1.39
1.12
Goals Against / Game
0.81
37.2%
Clean Sheet %
47.6%
23.3%
Failed to Score %
31.0%
4.7%
Goalless Draws %
11.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,468
Current Rating
1,479
#48
World Ranking
#41
56.8%
Win as Favourite
50.6%
31.5%
Win as Underdog
31.2%
11
Longest Win Streak
7
18
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1549 (2005)
Peak Rating
1553 (2022)
3W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-7L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

36.9% 26.5% 36.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 14 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
5 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 12 Feb 03 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
A 10 Feb 99 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
A 22 Apr 92 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
D 28 Feb 76 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
9.8%
0 - 1
9.7%
2 - 1
8.2%
1 - 2
8.1%
0 - 0
7.5%