Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Sweden
46.6% win probability
Predicted winner
25.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.52 - 1.11
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Sweden

1468#48
UEFA
VS

Greece

1445#62
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

46.6% 25.6% 27.8%
SWE
GRE
23
Rating Gap
1.52
Exp. Goals SWE
1.11
Exp. Goals GRE
72.2%
SWE No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 10-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 3W for Sweden, 3W for Greece, 4 draws. Never count either side out.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.24 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Recent Form 3W/2W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Sweden 3/10, Greece 2/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2013

Both teams are major tournament winners. Sweden's most recent title: 2013. Greece's most recent title: 2002.

Rating Trajectory -1 pts

Sweden are gaining momentum recently (-1 pts). Greece have moved -65 pts in the same window.

Penalty Shootouts 50% PSO

Shootout record: Sweden: 3W-3L; Greece: 0W-3L. Edge goes to Sweden if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

10 meeting(s) · 1920-2026

3
SWE Win
4
Draws
3
GRE Win
22
Goals For
12
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
129
Games Played
102
48.8%
Win %
46.1%
1.67
Goals Per Game
1.36
1.12
Goals Against / Game
0.96
37.2%
Clean Sheet %
38.2%
23.3%
Failed to Score %
30.4%
4.7%
Goalless Draws %
9.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,468
Current Rating
1,445
#48
World Ranking
#62
56.8%
Win as Favourite
54.6%
31.5%
Win as Underdog
24.8%
11
Longest Win Streak
7
18
Longest Unbeaten Run
17
1549 (2005)
Peak Rating
1516 (2005)
3W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

46.6% 25.6% 27.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 04 Jun 26 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
H 12 Oct 21 AWAY
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 08 Sep 21 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 10 Jun 08 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
UEFA European Championship
A 20 Aug 03 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
D 13 Feb 02 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
D 17 Apr 91 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
D 01 May 86 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 23 Sep 81 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
H 28 Aug 20 NEUTRAL
9 - 0
Olympic Games

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.2%
2 - 0
8.3%
0 - 1
8.0%
0 - 0
7.2%