Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Slovenia
72.5% win probability
Predicted winner
18.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.09 - 0.59
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

Slovenia

1412#93
UEFA
VS

Cyprus

1318#174
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

72.5% 18.3% 9.2%
SVN
CYP
94
Rating Gap
2.09
Exp. Goals SVN
0.59
Exp. Goals CYP
90.8%
SVN No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 6W-3W

Slovenia hold the historical edge: 6W-4D-3L across 13 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 20pp

Slovenia keep 33.9% clean sheets vs Cyprus's 13.8%, a 20pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Rating Gap 94 pts

Slovenia hold a 94-point rating edge: roughly 14.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 1W/3W

Cyprus won 3 of their last 10 games; Slovenia won 1. Current form favours Cyprus.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 2.12 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).

Underdog Record 12% W

Cyprus have won 12% of games entering as underdogs (44W from 375). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

13 meeting(s) · 2003-2026

6
SVN Win
4
Draws
3
CYP Win
20
Goals For
12
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
105
Games Played
98
38.1%
Win %
21.4%
1.24
Goals Per Game
0.92
0.94
Goals Against / Game
1.94
40.0%
Clean Sheet %
16.3%
29.5%
Failed to Score %
49.0%
12.4%
Goalless Draws %
6.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,412
Current Rating
1,318
#93
World Ranking
#174
59.2%
Win as Favourite
73.1%
20.1%
Win as Underdog
11.7%
4
Longest Win Streak
4
12
Longest Unbeaten Run
6
1500 (1991)
Peak Rating
1393 (2000)
1W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

72.5% 18.3% 9.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 04 Jun 26 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 14 Nov 21 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 30 Mar 21 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 16 Oct 18 AWAY
1 - 1
UEFA Nations League
H 09 Sep 18 AWAY
2 - 1
UEFA Nations League
A 10 Sep 13 AWAY
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 12 Oct 12 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 28 Feb 06 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly Tournament
D 11 Oct 03 AWAY
2 - 2
UEFA European Championship
H 02 Apr 03 AWAY
4 - 1
UEFA European Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
15.0%
1 - 0
14.4%
3 - 0
10.5%
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 1
8.5%
0 - 0
6.9%