Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Switzerland
37.6% win probability
Predicted winner
26.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.31 - 1.28
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Switzerland

1547#16
UEFA
VS

Canada

1519#25
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

37.6% 26.5% 36.0%
SUI
CAN
27
Rating Gap
1.31
Exp. Goals SUI
1.28
Exp. Goals CAN
64.1%
SUI No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 11pp

Canada keep 35.4% clean sheets vs Switzerland's 24.5%, a 11pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 1999

Canada have a major tournament title to their name; Switzerland do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.79 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Rating Gap 27 pts

Switzerland hold a 27-point rating edge: roughly 4.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Penalty Shootouts 33% PSO

Shootout record: Switzerland: 1W-6L; Canada: 3W-6L. Edge goes to Canada if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2002-2026

1
SUI Win
0
Draws
1
CAN Win
3
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
124
Games Played
131
46.8%
Win %
55.0%
1.78
Goals Per Game
2.07
1.06
Goals Against / Game
0.95
33.9%
Clean Sheet %
44.3%
19.4%
Failed to Score %
21.4%
6.5%
Goalless Draws %
7.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,547
Current Rating
1,519
#16
World Ranking
#25
55.7%
Win as Favourite
50.0%
24.9%
Win as Underdog
29.1%
10
Longest Win Streak
8
15
Longest Unbeaten Run
15
1547 (2026)
Peak Rating
1600 (2022)
1W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-6L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

37.6% 26.5% 36.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 24 Jun 26 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 15 May 02 AWAY
1 - 3
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
9.9%
0 - 1
9.6%
2 - 1
8.2%
1 - 2
8.0%
0 - 0
7.5%