Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Sri Lanka
59.6% win probability
Predicted winner
22.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.79 - 0.85
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Sri Lanka

1332#163
AFC
VS

Bhutan

1258#210
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

59.6% 22.9% 17.5%
SRI
BHU
75
Rating Gap
1.79
Exp. Goals SRI
0.85
Exp. Goals BHU
82.5%
SRI No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 5W/1W

Sri Lanka won 5 of their last 10 games; Bhutan won 1. Current form favours Sri Lanka.

H2H Dominance 7W-2W

Sri Lanka hold the historical edge: 7W-0D-2L across 9 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 1.52 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Rating Gap 75 pts

Sri Lanka hold a 75-point rating edge: roughly 11.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2002

Both teams are major tournament winners. Sri Lanka's most recent title: 1995. Bhutan's most recent title: 2002.

Underdog Record 8% W

Bhutan have won 8% of games entering as underdogs (8W from 103). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

9 meeting(s) · 2006-2026

7
SRI Win
0
Draws
2
BHU Win
24
Goals For
6
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
68
Games Played
45
14.7%
Win %
17.8%
0.71
Goals Per Game
0.62
2.07
Goals Against / Game
3.20
14.7%
Clean Sheet %
17.8%
60.3%
Failed to Score %
55.6%
7.4%
Goalless Draws %
4.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,332
Current Rating
1,258
#163
World Ranking
#210
42.3%
Win as Favourite
30.0%
11.6%
Win as Underdog
7.8%
3
Longest Win Streak
2
7
Longest Unbeaten Run
2
1371 (2008)
Peak Rating
1358 (1999)
4W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

59.6% 22.9% 17.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 08 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
4 - 1
Friendly
H 25 Mar 24 AWAY
2 - 0
FIFA Series
H 17 Mar 15 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 12 Mar 15 AWAY
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 06 Sep 13 NEUTRAL
5 - 2
SAFF Championship
H 03 Dec 11 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
SAFF Championship
H 06 Dec 09 NEUTRAL
6 - 0
SAFF Championship
H 06 Jun 08 AWAY
2 - 0
SAFF Championship
H 04 Apr 06 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
AFC Challenge Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
12.8%
2 - 0
11.4%
1 - 1
10.9%
2 - 1
9.7%
0 - 0
7.1%
3 - 0
6.8%