Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Mauritius
45.1% win probability
Predicted winner
25.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.15 - 1.49
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Somalia

1294#191
CAF
VS

Mauritius

1303#186
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

29.2% 25.7% 45.1%
SOM
MRI
9
Rating Gap
1.15
Exp. Goals SOM
1.49
Exp. Goals MRI
54.9%
SOM No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Mauritius keep 22.5% clean sheets vs Somalia's 13.6%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 1.75 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Recent Form 1W/0W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Somalia 1/10, Mauritius 0/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2003

Mauritius have a major tournament title to their name; Somalia do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Unbeaten Run 17 games

Mauritius's longest unbeaten run is 17 games vs Somalia's 4. Mauritius have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

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Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
SOM Win
2
Draws
0
MRI Win
0
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
36
Games Played
84
8.3%
Win %
16.7%
0.44
Goals Per Game
0.68
1.64
Goals Against / Game
1.49
25.0%
Clean Sheet %
25.0%
61.1%
Failed to Score %
51.2%
19.4%
Goalless Draws %
11.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,294
Current Rating
1,303
#191
World Ranking
#186
28.6%
Win as Favourite
45.5%
7.9%
Win as Underdog
18.8%
1
Longest Win Streak
17
4
Longest Unbeaten Run
17
1377 (1994)
Peak Rating
1409 (1988)
1W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

29.2% 25.7% 45.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 31 Mar 26 AWAY
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
D 27 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.2%
0 - 1
10.7%
1 - 2
9.1%
1 - 0
8.2%
0 - 2
7.9%
0 - 0
7.2%