Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Faroe Islands
86.5% win probability
Predicted winner
11.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.21 - 2.41
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

San Marino

1192#217
UEFA
VS

Faroe Islands

1349#150
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

2.1% 11.4% 86.5%
SMR
FRO
157
Rating Gap
0.21
Exp. Goals SMR
2.41
Exp. Goals FRO
13.5%
SMR No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 0W/7W

Faroe Islands won 7 of their last 10 games; San Marino won 0. Current form favours Faroe Islands.

Rating Gap 157 pts

Faroe Islands hold a 157-point rating edge: roughly 23.5% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 0.95 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Limited H2H Data 3 games

Only 3 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Faroe Islands keep 13.1% clean sheets vs San Marino's 4.4%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 1991

Faroe Islands have a major tournament title to their name; San Marino do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

3 meeting(s) · 1995-2026

0
SMR Win
0
Draws
3
FRO Win
2
Goals For
8
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
92
Games Played
93
2.2%
Win %
24.7%
0.25
Goals Per Game
0.84
3.48
Goals Against / Game
1.66
6.5%
Clean Sheet %
19.4%
77.2%
Failed to Score %
47.3%
5.4%
Goalless Draws %
5.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,192
Current Rating
1,349
#217
World Ranking
#150
0.0%
Win as Favourite
55.4%
1.3%
Win as Underdog
6.9%
1
Longest Win Streak
3
2
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1260 (2004)
Peak Rating
1379 (1990)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

2.1% 11.4% 86.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 28 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
A 11 Oct 95 AWAY
1 - 3
UEFA European Championship
H 25 May 95 AWAY
3 - 0
UEFA European Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
21.2%
0 - 1
17.6%
0 - 3
17.1%
0 - 4
10.3%
0 - 0
7.3%
0 - 5
5.0%