Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Bangladesh
78.9% win probability
Predicted winner
15.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.41 - 2.21
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

San Marino

1192#217
UEFA
VS

Bangladesh

1320#171
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

5.5% 15.6% 78.9%
SMR
BAN
127
Rating Gap
0.41
Exp. Goals SMR
2.21
Exp. Goals BAN
21.1%
SMR No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 0W/3W

Bangladesh won 3 of their last 10 games; San Marino won 0. Current form favours Bangladesh.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 1.11 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Rating Gap 127 pts

Bangladesh hold a 127-point rating edge: roughly 19.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 21pp

Bangladesh keep 25.4% clean sheets vs San Marino's 4.4%, a 21pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 2003

Bangladesh have a major tournament title to their name; San Marino do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
SMR Win
0
Draws
1
BAN Win
1
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
92
Games Played
105
2.2%
Win %
23.8%
0.25
Goals Per Game
0.74
3.48
Goals Against / Game
1.78
6.5%
Clean Sheet %
25.7%
77.2%
Failed to Score %
49.5%
5.4%
Goalless Draws %
10.5%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,192
Current Rating
1,320
#217
World Ranking
#171
0.0%
Win as Favourite
49.5%
1.3%
Win as Underdog
15.3%
1
Longest Win Streak
5
2
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1260 (2004)
Peak Rating
1406 (2005)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

5.5% 15.6% 78.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 05 Jun 26 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
17.7%
0 - 1
16.0%
0 - 3
13.1%
1 - 2
7.3%
0 - 0
7.2%
0 - 4
7.2%