Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Sierra Leone
38.4% win probability
Predicted winner
28.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.21 - 1.11
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 41%
Total goals

Sierra Leone

1375#128
CAF
VS

Liberia

1368#140
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

38.4% 28.1% 33.5%
SLE
LBR
8
Rating Gap
1.21
Exp. Goals SLE
1.11
Exp. Goals LBR
66.5%
SLE No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 27-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 11W for Sierra Leone, 10W for Liberia, 6 draws. Never count either side out.

Recent Form 4W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Sierra Leone 4/10, Liberia 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 1995

Sierra Leone have a major tournament title to their name; Liberia do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 1.86 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 41%).

Penalty Shootouts 22% PSO

Shootout record: Sierra Leone: 2W-7L; Liberia: 0W-1L. Edge goes to Sierra Leone if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Trajectory +37 pts

Sierra Leone are gaining momentum recently (+37 pts). Liberia have moved +9 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

27 meeting(s) · 2017-2026

11
SLE Win
6
Draws
10
LBR Win
26
Goals For
28
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
68
Games Played
77
23.5%
Win %
27.3%
0.96
Goals Per Game
0.86
1.44
Goals Against / Game
1.44
26.5%
Clean Sheet %
22.1%
32.4%
Failed to Score %
44.2%
10.3%
Goalless Draws %
5.2%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,375
Current Rating
1,368
#128
World Ranking
#140
40.2%
Win as Favourite
41.9%
22.5%
Win as Underdog
22.7%
4
Longest Win Streak
5
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
13
1467 (1996)
Peak Rating
1457 (2001)
2W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

38.4% 28.1% 33.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 09 Jun 26 AWAY
3 - 1
Friendly
H 06 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly
D 01 Nov 24 AWAY
1 - 1
African Nations Championship
A 27 Oct 24 AWAY
1 - 2
African Nations Championship
A 27 Mar 22 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Friendly
A 28 Apr 21 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly Tournament
H 08 Sep 19 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 04 Sep 19 AWAY
3 - 1
FIFA World Cup
D 22 Jul 18 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 05 Jun 17 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.2%
1 - 0
11.9%
0 - 1
10.9%
0 - 0
9.8%
2 - 1
8.0%
1 - 2
7.3%