Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Senegal
65.8% win probability
Predicted winner
22.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.71 - 0.55
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 39%
Total goals

Senegal

1555#14
CAF
VS

Iraq

1443#62
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

65.8% 22.8% 11.4%
SEN
IRQ
112
Rating Gap
1.71
Exp. Goals SEN
0.55
Exp. Goals IRQ
88.6%
SEN No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 6W/3W

Senegal won 6 of their last 10 games; Iraq won 3. Current form favours Senegal.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 112 pts

Senegal hold a 112-point rating edge: roughly 16.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Senegal's most recent title: 2022. Iraq's most recent title: 2025.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 2.90 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 39%).

Underdog Record 23% W

Iraq have won 23% of games entering as underdogs (46W from 198). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
SEN Win
0
Draws
0
IRQ Win
5
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
167
Games Played
159
59.9%
Win %
46.5%
1.61
Goals Per Game
1.33
0.66
Goals Against / Game
0.94
53.9%
Clean Sheet %
41.5%
18.0%
Failed to Score %
30.8%
9.6%
Goalless Draws %
14.5%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,555
Current Rating
1,443
#14
World Ranking
#62
55.7%
Win as Favourite
54.9%
27.7%
Win as Underdog
23.2%
10
Longest Win Streak
8
24
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1595 (2026)
Peak Rating
1544 (2024)
15W-13L
Penalty Shootouts
13W-10L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

65.8% 22.8% 11.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 26 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
5 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
17.9%
2 - 0
15.3%
0 - 0
10.5%
1 - 1
9.8%
3 - 0
8.7%
2 - 1
8.4%