Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Senegal
46.6% win probability
Predicted winner
27.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.34 - 0.92
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 39%
Total goals

Senegal

1577#8
CAF
VS

Egypt

1517#29
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

46.6% 27.8% 25.6%
SEN
EGY
60
Rating Gap
1.34
Exp. Goals SEN
0.92
Exp. Goals EGY
74.4%
SEN No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 17-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 6W for Senegal, 8W for Egypt, 3 draws. Never count either side out.

Recent Form 7W/5W

Senegal won 7 of their last 10 games; Egypt won 5. Current form favours Senegal.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 3.04 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 39%).

Rating Gap 60 pts

Senegal hold a 60-point rating edge: roughly 9.0% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2022

Both teams are major tournament winners. Senegal's most recent title: 2022. Egypt's most recent title: 2008.

Underdog Record 30% W

Egypt have won 30% of games entering as underdogs (51W from 173). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

17 meeting(s) · 2002-2026

6
SEN Win
3
Draws
8
EGY Win
10
Goals For
13
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
164
Games Played
135
60.4%
Win %
54.1%
1.59
Goals Per Game
1.42
0.63
Goals Against / Game
0.74
54.3%
Clean Sheet %
50.4%
18.3%
Failed to Score %
20.0%
9.8%
Goalless Draws %
8.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,577
Current Rating
1,517
#8
World Ranking
#29
55.7%
Win as Favourite
57.0%
27.8%
Win as Underdog
29.5%
10
Longest Win Streak
9
24
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1595 (2026)
Peak Rating
1600 (2010)
15W-13L
Penalty Shootouts
13W-11L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

46.6% 27.8% 25.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 14 Jan 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
H 29 Mar 22 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 25 Mar 22 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 06 Feb 22 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
A 15 Nov 14 AWAY
0 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
H 05 Sep 14 AWAY
2 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
H 07 Feb 06 AWAY
2 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
H 29 Dec 05 AWAY
4 - 2
Friendly Tournament
H 10 Oct 03 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
A 20 Jan 02 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
14.0%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
10.4%
0 - 1
9.6%
2 - 0
9.4%
2 - 1
8.6%