Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Burkina Faso
57.6% win probability
Predicted winner
25.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.73 - 1.58
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 41%
Total goals

Sudan

1378#123
CAF
VS

Burkina Faso

1460#58
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

17.2% 25.2% 57.6%
SDN
BFA
82
Rating Gap
0.73
Exp. Goals SDN
1.58
Exp. Goals BFA
42.4%
SDN No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 2W/5W

Burkina Faso won 5 of their last 10 games; Sudan won 2. Current form favours Burkina Faso.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 82 pts

Burkina Faso hold a 82-point rating edge: roughly 12.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2007

Sudan have a major tournament title to their name; Burkina Faso do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Underdog Record 24% W

Sudan have won 24% of games entering as underdogs (79W from 335). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 2.31 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 41%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

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Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2012-2025

1
SDN Win
0
Draws
1
BFA Win
2
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
125
Games Played
135
28.8%
Win %
42.2%
0.91
Goals Per Game
1.31
1.21
Goals Against / Game
0.99
33.6%
Clean Sheet %
38.5%
40.8%
Failed to Score %
29.6%
13.6%
Goalless Draws %
11.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,378
Current Rating
1,460
#123
World Ranking
#58
49.0%
Win as Favourite
48.5%
23.6%
Win as Underdog
25.4%
6
Longest Win Streak
6
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1470 (2007)
Peak Rating
1492 (2024)
9W-9L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

17.2% 25.2% 57.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 31 Dec 25 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Africa Cup of Nations
H 30 Jan 12 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
15.7%
0 - 2
12.4%
1 - 1
11.5%
0 - 0
10.0%
1 - 2
9.0%
1 - 0
7.3%