Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Scotland
50.8% win probability
Predicted winner
23.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.71 - 1.14
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 54%
Total goals

Scotland

1481#40
UEFA
VS

Curaçao

1430#69
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

50.8% 23.9% 25.4%
SCO
CUW
51
Rating Gap
1.71
Exp. Goals SCO
1.14
Exp. Goals CUW
74.7%
SCO No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/4W

Scotland won 7 of their last 10 games; Curaçao won 4. Current form favours Scotland.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 3.48 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 54%).

Win Streak 3 games

Scotland are currently on a 3-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Tournament Pedigree 2019

Both teams are major tournament winners. Scotland's most recent title: 1981. Curaçao's most recent title: 2019.

Rating Gap 51 pts

Scotland hold a 51-point rating edge: roughly 7.7% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
SCO Win
0
Draws
0
CUW Win
4
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
107
Games Played
107
44.9%
Win %
43.9%
1.41
Goals Per Game
2.01
1.28
Goals Against / Game
1.23
35.5%
Clean Sheet %
32.7%
28.0%
Failed to Score %
29.0%
4.7%
Goalless Draws %
9.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,481
Current Rating
1,430
#40
World Ranking
#69
61.1%
Win as Favourite
51.0%
28.3%
Win as Underdog
25.4%
13
Longest Win Streak
5
22
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1510 (1977)
Peak Rating
1480 (2025)
2W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

50.8% 23.9% 25.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 30 May 26 AWAY
4 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.3%
1 - 0
9.9%
2 - 1
9.7%
2 - 0
8.5%
0 - 1
6.6%
1 - 2
6.4%