Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Rwanda
43.3% win probability
Predicted winner
26.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.43 - 1.16
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Rwanda

1374#128
CAF
VS

Grenada

1342#156
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

43.3% 26.1% 30.6%
RWA
GRN
32
Rating Gap
1.43
Exp. Goals RWA
1.16
Exp. Goals GRN
69.4%
RWA No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 3W/6W

Grenada won 6 of their last 10 games; Rwanda won 3. Current form favours Grenada.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 14pp

Rwanda keep 34.0% clean sheets vs Grenada's 20.2%, a 14pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.4% of Rwanda's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Tournament Pedigree 2017

Both teams are major tournament winners. Rwanda's most recent title: 2000. Grenada's most recent title: 2017.

Underdog Record 23% W

Grenada have won 23% of games entering as underdogs (40W from 173). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
RWA Win
0
Draws
0
GRN Win
4
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
97
Games Played
101
29.9%
Win %
30.7%
0.96
Goals Per Game
1.35
0.98
Goals Against / Game
2.12
39.2%
Clean Sheet %
22.8%
48.5%
Failed to Score %
34.7%
18.6%
Goalless Draws %
6.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,374
Current Rating
1,342
#128
World Ranking
#156
52.4%
Win as Favourite
45.5%
20.9%
Win as Underdog
23.1%
6
Longest Win Streak
6
10
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1436 (2011)
Peak Rating
1463 (1971)
7W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

43.3% 26.1% 30.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 27 Mar 26 AWAY
4 - 0
FIFA Series

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
10.7%
2 - 1
8.9%
0 - 1
8.7%
2 - 0
7.7%
0 - 0
7.4%