Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Russia
56.6% win probability
Predicted winner
24.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.64 - 0.83
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Russia

1512#34
UEFA
VS

Burkina Faso

1460#58
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

56.6% 24.6% 18.8%
RUS
BFA
52
Rating Gap
1.64
Exp. Goals RUS
0.83
Exp. Goals BFA
81.2%
RUS No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Russia keep 41.7% clean sheets vs Burkina Faso's 32.5%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Russia 6/10, Burkina Faso 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 2.96 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

Rating Gap 52 pts

Russia hold a 52-point rating edge: roughly 7.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 25% W

Burkina Faso have won 25% of games entering as underdogs (62W from 244). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
RUS Win
0
Draws
0
BFA Win
3
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
100
Games Played
135
48.0%
Win %
42.2%
1.98
Goals Per Game
1.31
1.07
Goals Against / Game
0.99
42.0%
Clean Sheet %
38.5%
23.0%
Failed to Score %
29.6%
9.0%
Goalless Draws %
11.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,512
Current Rating
1,460
#34
World Ranking
#58
60.1%
Win as Favourite
48.5%
28.8%
Win as Underdog
25.4%
12
Longest Win Streak
6
23
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1547 (1996)
Peak Rating
1492 (2024)
2W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

56.6% 24.6% 18.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 05 Jun 26 AWAY
3 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
14.0%
1 - 1
11.5%
2 - 0
11.4%
2 - 1
9.4%
0 - 0
8.5%
0 - 1
7.0%