Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Panama
41.7% win probability
Predicted winner
27.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.05 - 1.28
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 41%
Total goals

South Africa

1460#57
CAF
VS

Panama

1517#28
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

30.4% 27.9% 41.7%
RSA
PAN
57
Rating Gap
1.05
Exp. Goals RSA
1.28
Exp. Goals PAN
58.3%
RSA No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Underdog Record 31% W

South Africa have won 31% of games entering as underdogs (52W from 167). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 3 games

Only 3 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 12pp

South Africa keep 41.2% clean sheets vs Panama's 28.7%, a 12pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 3W/4W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: South Africa 3/10, Panama 4/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.2% of South Africa's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Tournament Pedigree 2021

Both teams are major tournament winners. South Africa's most recent title: 2021. Panama's most recent title: 2009.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

3 meeting(s) · 2005-2026

0
RSA Win
2
Draws
1
PAN Win
3
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
151
Games Played
174
42.4%
Win %
42.0%
1.35
Goals Per Game
1.40
0.87
Goals Against / Game
1.29
42.4%
Clean Sheet %
33.3%
29.1%
Failed to Score %
32.8%
17.2%
Goalless Draws %
8.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,460
Current Rating
1,517
#57
World Ranking
#28
51.8%
Win as Favourite
52.6%
31.1%
Win as Underdog
23.2%
7
Longest Win Streak
5
23
Longest Unbeaten Run
13
1522 (1996)
Peak Rating
1536 (2025)
12W-14L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-4L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

30.4% 27.9% 41.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 31 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
D 27 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
D 17 Jul 05 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
CONCACAF Gold Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 1
12.5%
1 - 0
10.2%
0 - 0
9.8%
1 - 2
8.4%
0 - 2
8.0%