Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

South Africa
70.9% win probability
Predicted winner
19.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.05 - 0.62
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

South Africa

1460#57
CAF
VS

Nicaragua

1376#126
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

70.9% 19.0% 10.1%
RSA
NCA
84
Rating Gap
2.05
Exp. Goals RSA
0.62
Exp. Goals NCA
89.9%
RSA No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 22pp

South Africa keep 41.2% clean sheets vs Nicaragua's 18.8%, a 22pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Rating Gap 84 pts

South Africa hold a 84-point rating edge: roughly 12.6% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 3W/1W

South Africa won 3 of their last 10 games; Nicaragua won 1. Current form favours South Africa.

Tournament Pedigree 2021

South Africa have a major tournament title to their name; Nicaragua do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.2% of South Africa's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

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Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
RSA Win
1
Draws
0
NCA Win
0
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
151
Games Played
114
42.4%
Win %
34.2%
1.35
Goals Per Game
1.38
0.87
Goals Against / Game
1.34
42.4%
Clean Sheet %
30.7%
29.1%
Failed to Score %
37.7%
17.2%
Goalless Draws %
7.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,460
Current Rating
1,376
#57
World Ranking
#126
51.8%
Win as Favourite
47.2%
31.1%
Win as Underdog
14.2%
7
Longest Win Streak
5
23
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1522 (1996)
Peak Rating
1469 (2024)
12W-14L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

70.9% 19.0% 10.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 29 May 26 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
14.5%
1 - 0
14.1%
3 - 0
9.9%
2 - 1
9.0%
1 - 1
8.8%
0 - 0
6.9%