Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

South Korea
54.0% win probability
Predicted winner
25.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.83 - 1.53
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

South Africa

1464#46
CAF
VS

South Korea

1524#24
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

20.2% 25.8% 54.0%
RSA
KOR
61
Rating Gap
0.83
Exp. Goals RSA
1.53
Exp. Goals KOR
46.0%
RSA No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 2W/6W

South Korea won 6 of their last 10 games; South Africa won 2. Current form favours South Korea.

Underdog Record 32% W

South Africa have won 32% of games entering as underdogs (56W from 176). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.2% of South Africa's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.15 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Rating Gap 61 pts

South Korea hold a 61-point rating edge: roughly 9.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
RSA Win
0
Draws
0
KOR Win
1
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
152
Games Played
153
42.1%
Win %
56.9%
1.34
Goals Per Game
1.80
0.88
Goals Against / Game
0.86
42.1%
Clean Sheet %
52.3%
28.9%
Failed to Score %
20.9%
17.1%
Goalless Draws %
9.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,464
Current Rating
1,524
#46
World Ranking
#24
51.4%
Win as Favourite
58.2%
31.8%
Win as Underdog
35.1%
7
Longest Win Streak
11
23
Longest Unbeaten Run
30
1522 (1996)
Peak Rating
1608 (1978)
12W-14L
Penalty Shootouts
14W-12L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

20.2% 25.8% 54.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 24 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
14.5%
1 - 1
12.0%
0 - 2
11.1%
0 - 0
9.4%
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 0
7.8%