Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Canada
49.6% win probability
Predicted winner
27.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.83 - 1.38
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.2
Over 2.5: 38%
Total goals

South Africa

1461#49
CAF
VS

Canada

1532#23
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

22.7% 27.7% 49.6%
RSA
CAN
71
Rating Gap
0.83
Exp. Goals RSA
1.38
Exp. Goals CAN
50.4%
RSA No Defeat
2.2
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 2W/5W

Canada won 5 of their last 10 games; South Africa won 2. Current form favours Canada.

Underdog Record 31% W

South Africa have won 31% of games entering as underdogs (53W from 170). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.1% of South Africa's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Rating Gap 71 pts

Canada hold a 71-point rating edge: roughly 10.7% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2021

Both teams are major tournament winners. South Africa's most recent title: 2021. Canada's most recent title: 1999.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2007-2026

1
RSA Win
0
Draws
1
CAN Win
2
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
154
Games Played
132
42.2%
Win %
55.3%
1.34
Goals Per Game
2.06
0.87
Goals Against / Game
0.94
42.2%
Clean Sheet %
44.7%
29.2%
Failed to Score %
21.2%
16.9%
Goalless Draws %
7.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,461
Current Rating
1,532
#49
World Ranking
#23
51.8%
Win as Favourite
50.2%
31.2%
Win as Underdog
29.1%
7
Longest Win Streak
8
23
Longest Unbeaten Run
15
1522 (1996)
Peak Rating
1600 (2022)
12W-14L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-6L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

22.7% 27.7% 49.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 28 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 20 Nov 07 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
15.1%
1 - 1
12.6%
0 - 0
11.0%
0 - 2
10.4%
1 - 0
9.2%
1 - 2
8.7%