Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Romania
43.8% win probability
Predicted winner
25.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.48 - 1.19
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

Romania

1427#73
UEFA
VS

Wales

1423#80
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

43.8% 25.7% 30.5%
ROU
WAL
3
Rating Gap
1.48
Exp. Goals ROU
1.19
Exp. Goals WAL
69.5%
ROU No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 4W-1W

Romania hold the historical edge: 4W-1D-1L across 6 meetings.

Recent Form 4W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Romania 4/10, Wales 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 1977

Both teams are major tournament winners. Romania's most recent title: 1977. Wales's most recent title: 1951.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 2.88 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).

Unbeaten Run 17 games

Romania's longest unbeaten run is 17 games vs Wales's 10. Romania have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 40% PSO

Shootout record: Romania: 2W-3L; Wales: 0W-2L. Edge goes to Romania if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 1970-2026

4
ROU Win
1
Draws
1
WAL Win
11
Goals For
8
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
109
Games Played
110
42.2%
Win %
39.1%
1.50
Goals Per Game
1.25
1.12
Goals Against / Game
1.06
34.9%
Clean Sheet %
37.3%
30.3%
Failed to Score %
29.1%
11.0%
Goalless Draws %
10.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,427
Current Rating
1,423
#73
World Ranking
#80
52.9%
Win as Favourite
54.8%
31.1%
Win as Underdog
20.8%
8
Longest Win Streak
6
17
Longest Unbeaten Run
10
1542 (1998)
Peak Rating
1499 (2021)
2W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

43.8% 25.7% 30.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 06 Jun 26 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
A 17 Nov 93 AWAY
1 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 20 May 92 AWAY
5 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 12 Oct 83 AWAY
5 - 0
Friendly
H 24 Nov 71 AWAY
2 - 0
UEFA European Championship
D 11 Nov 70 AWAY
0 - 0
UEFA European Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
10.3%
2 - 1
9.0%
0 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
7.6%
1 - 2
7.3%