Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Portugal
63.9% win probability
Predicted winner
21.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.84 - 0.73
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Portugal

1588#7
UEFA
VS
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

63.9% 21.9% 14.2%
POR
COD
80
Rating Gap
1.84
Exp. Goals POR
0.73
Exp. Goals COD
85.8%
POR No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 80 pts

Portugal hold a 80-point rating edge: roughly 12.0% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 6W/4W

Portugal won 6 of their last 10 games; Congo Democratic Republic won 4. Current form favours Portugal.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.07 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Portugal's most recent title: 2024. Congo Democratic Republic's most recent title: 2015.

Underdog Record 22% W

Congo Democratic Republic have won 22% of games entering as underdogs (30W from 139). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
POR Win
1
Draws
0
COD Win
1
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
137
Games Played
139
62.8%
Win %
42.4%
2.32
Goals Per Game
1.32
0.77
Goals Against / Game
0.89
48.9%
Clean Sheet %
37.4%
19.0%
Failed to Score %
25.9%
9.5%
Goalless Draws %
8.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,588
Current Rating
1,508
#7
World Ranking
#33
62.6%
Win as Favourite
51.0%
30.9%
Win as Underdog
21.6%
11
Longest Win Streak
5
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1601 (2006)
Peak Rating
1529 (2026)
5W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
5W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

63.9% 21.9% 14.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 17 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
14.1%
2 - 0
13.0%
1 - 1
10.3%
2 - 1
9.5%
3 - 0
8.0%
0 - 0
7.7%