Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Thailand
63.5% win probability
Predicted winner
20.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.87 - 1.99
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Total goals

Philippines

1405#100
AFC
VS

Thailand

1470#41
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

15.6% 20.9% 63.5%
PHI
THA
65
Rating Gap
0.87
Exp. Goals PHI
1.99
Exp. Goals THA
36.5%
PHI No Defeat
2.9
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 21W-3W

Thailand hold the historical edge: 21W-2D-3L across 26 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Thailand keep 30.8% clean sheets vs Philippines's 22.0%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 7W/6W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Philippines 7/10, Thailand 6/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Rating Gap 65 pts

Thailand hold a 65-point rating edge: roughly 9.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Philippines's most recent title: 1913. Thailand's most recent title: 2024.

Underdog Record 12% W

Philippines have won 12% of games entering as underdogs (25W from 216). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

26 meeting(s) · 2014-2024

3
PHI Win
2
Draws
21
THA Win
15
Goals For
78
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
106
Games Played
145
32.1%
Win %
44.1%
1.38
Goals Per Game
1.61
1.62
Goals Against / Game
1.20
17.9%
Clean Sheet %
35.9%
34.0%
Failed to Score %
24.8%
7.5%
Goalless Draws %
7.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,405
Current Rating
1,470
#100
World Ranking
#41
48.9%
Win as Favourite
56.5%
11.6%
Win as Underdog
21.3%
4
Longest Win Streak
9
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
21
1464 (2014)
Peak Rating
1541 (1996)
1W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
12W-10L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

15.6% 20.9% 63.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 30 Dec 24 AWAY
3 - 1
AFF Championship
H 27 Dec 24 AWAY
2 - 1
AFF Championship
H 11 Oct 24 AWAY
3 - 1
King's Cup
H 26 Dec 22 AWAY
4 - 0
AFF Championship
A 14 Dec 21 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
AFF Championship
D 21 Nov 18 AWAY
1 - 1
AFF Championship
A 25 Nov 16 AWAY
0 - 1
AFF Championship
H 10 Dec 14 AWAY
3 - 0
AFF Championship
D 06 Dec 14 AWAY
0 - 0
AFF Championship
H 09 Nov 14 AWAY
3 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
11.4%
0 - 2
11.4%
1 - 1
9.9%
1 - 2
9.9%
0 - 3
7.5%
1 - 3
6.5%