Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Philippines
53.4% win probability
Predicted winner
23.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.71 - 1.03
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

Philippines

1406#100
AFC
VS

Myanmar

1335#161
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

53.4% 23.9% 22.7%
PHI
MYA
71
Rating Gap
1.71
Exp. Goals PHI
1.03
Exp. Goals MYA
77.3%
PHI No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/5W

Philippines won 7 of their last 10 games; Myanmar won 5. Current form favours Philippines.

Rating Gap 71 pts

Philippines hold a 71-point rating edge: roughly 10.7% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2006

Both teams are major tournament winners. Philippines's most recent title: 1913. Myanmar's most recent title: 2006.

Underdog Record 16% W

Myanmar have won 16% of games entering as underdogs (27W from 170). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 2.44 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 52%).

When Favourite 48% W

Philippines win 48% of games when entering as the favoured side (68W from 141). Reliable frontrunners.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

15 meeting(s) · 2004-2026

4
PHI Win
4
Draws
7
MYA Win
20
Goals For
31
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
106
Games Played
108
32.1%
Win %
25.9%
1.38
Goals Per Game
1.04
1.62
Goals Against / Game
2.49
17.9%
Clean Sheet %
20.4%
34.0%
Failed to Score %
45.4%
7.5%
Goalless Draws %
8.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,406
Current Rating
1,335
#100
World Ranking
#161
48.2%
Win as Favourite
63.7%
11.3%
Win as Underdog
15.9%
4
Longest Win Streak
6
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
8
1464 (2014)
Peak Rating
1414 (2010)
1W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

53.4% 23.9% 22.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 09 Jun 26 AWAY
5 - 1
Friendly Tournament
D 12 Dec 24 AWAY
1 - 1
AFF Championship
A 18 Dec 21 NEUTRAL
2 - 3
AFF Championship
A 06 Sep 14 AWAY
2 - 3
Friendly Tournament
A 06 Feb 13 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
H 30 Nov 12 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
AFF Championship
D 21 Mar 11 AWAY
1 - 1
AFC Challenge Cup
D 08 Dec 10 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
AFF Championship
D 16 Jan 07 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
AFF Championship
A 08 Dec 04 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
AFF Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.3%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.7%
2 - 0
9.4%
0 - 1
6.6%
0 - 0
6.4%