Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Philippines
66.3% win probability
Predicted winner
20.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.02 - 0.79
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Total goals

Philippines

1406#100
AFC
VS

Guam

1310#182
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

66.3% 20.2% 13.6%
PHI
GUM
96
Rating Gap
2.02
Exp. Goals PHI
0.79
Exp. Goals GUM
86.5%
PHI No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/2W

Philippines won 7 of their last 10 games; Guam won 2. Current form favours Philippines.

H2H Dominance 6W-0W

Philippines hold the historical edge: 6W-0D-0L across 6 meetings.

Rating Gap 96 pts

Philippines hold a 96-point rating edge: roughly 14.5% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 1913

Philippines have a major tournament title to their name; Guam do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Underdog Record 14% W

Guam have won 14% of games entering as underdogs (14W from 98). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 2.35 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 53%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 2000-2026

6
PHI Win
0
Draws
0
GUM Win
18
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
106
Games Played
46
32.1%
Win %
15.2%
1.38
Goals Per Game
0.96
1.62
Goals Against / Game
2.61
17.9%
Clean Sheet %
10.9%
34.0%
Failed to Score %
54.3%
7.5%
Goalless Draws %
0.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,406
Current Rating
1,310
#100
World Ranking
#182
48.2%
Win as Favourite
46.9%
11.3%
Win as Underdog
14.3%
4
Longest Win Streak
3
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1464 (2014)
Peak Rating
1370 (2015)
1W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

66.3% 20.2% 13.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 03 Jun 26 AWAY
5 - 1
Friendly Tournament
H 11 Jun 21 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 10 Sep 19 AWAY
1 - 4
FIFA World Cup
H 25 Sep 12 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly Tournament
H 12 Jun 12 AWAY
3 - 0
Friendly
H 29 Jan 00 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
AFC Asian Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
12.3%
1 - 0
12.2%
2 - 1
9.7%
1 - 1
9.6%
3 - 0
8.3%
3 - 1
6.5%