Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Paraguay
60.5% win probability
Predicted winner
22.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.82 - 0.85
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

Paraguay

1441#64
CONMEBOL
VS

Nicaragua

1376#126
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

60.5% 22.5% 17.0%
PAR
NCA
64
Rating Gap
1.82
Exp. Goals PAR
0.85
Exp. Goals NCA
83.0%
PAR No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 4W/1W

Paraguay won 4 of their last 10 games; Nicaragua won 1. Current form favours Paraguay.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 12pp

Paraguay keep 30.6% clean sheets vs Nicaragua's 18.8%, a 12pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 1979

Paraguay have a major tournament title to their name; Nicaragua do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 64 pts

Paraguay hold a 64-point rating edge: roughly 9.7% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 14% W

Nicaragua have won 14% of games entering as underdogs (28W from 197). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2023-2026

2
PAR Win
0
Draws
0
NCA Win
6
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
102
Games Played
114
26.5%
Win %
34.2%
0.92
Goals Per Game
1.38
1.32
Goals Against / Game
1.34
29.4%
Clean Sheet %
30.7%
44.1%
Failed to Score %
37.7%
12.7%
Goalless Draws %
7.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,441
Current Rating
1,376
#64
World Ranking
#126
52.5%
Win as Favourite
47.2%
24.3%
Win as Underdog
14.2%
8
Longest Win Streak
5
14
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1518 (1997)
Peak Rating
1469 (2024)
7W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

60.5% 22.5% 17.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 05 Jun 26 AWAY
4 - 0
Friendly
H 18 Jun 23 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
12.6%
2 - 0
11.5%
1 - 1
10.7%
2 - 1
9.8%
3 - 0
7.0%
0 - 0
6.9%