Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

France
93.5% win probability
Predicted winner
5.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.15 - 3.13
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.3
Over 2.5: 64%
Total goals

Paraguay

1456#54
CONMEBOL
VS

France

1657#2
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

0.8% 5.7% 93.5%
PAR
FRA
201
Rating Gap
0.15
Exp. Goals PAR
3.13
Exp. Goals FRA
6.5%
PAR No Defeat
3.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Win Streak 7 games

France are currently on a 7-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Rating Gap 201 pts

France hold a 201-point rating edge: roughly 30.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 4W/9W

France won 9 of their last 10 games; Paraguay won 4. Current form favours France.

H2H Dominance 4W-0W

France hold the historical edge: 4W-2D-0L across 6 meetings.

Goal Patterns 3.3 xG

Combined avg of 3.10 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 3.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 64%).

Tournament Pedigree 2020

Both teams are major tournament winners. Paraguay's most recent title: 1979. France's most recent title: 2020.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 1958-2026

0
PAR Win
2
Draws
4
FRA Win
4
Goals For
15
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
106
Games Played
142
26.4%
Win %
68.3%
0.91
Goals Per Game
2.15
1.29
Goals Against / Game
0.85
30.2%
Clean Sheet %
43.7%
44.3%
Failed to Score %
14.8%
13.2%
Goalless Draws %
7.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,456
Current Rating
1,657
#54
World Ranking
#2
52.6%
Win as Favourite
60.0%
24.2%
Win as Underdog
33.7%
8
Longest Win Streak
14
14
Longest Unbeaten Run
30
1518 (1997)
Peak Rating
1657 (2026)
8W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

0.8% 5.7% 93.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 04 Jul 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 02 Jun 17 AWAY
5 - 0
Friendly
D 01 Jun 14 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
D 31 May 08 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 28 Jun 98 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 08 Jun 58 NEUTRAL
7 - 3
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 3
19.2%
0 - 2
18.4%
0 - 4
15.1%
0 - 1
11.8%
0 - 5
9.4%
0 - 0
3.8%