Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Panama
59.5% win probability
Predicted winner
23.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.76 - 0.83
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Panama

1517#28
CONCACAF
VS

Dominican Republic

1421#82
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

59.5% 23.2% 17.3%
PAN
DOM
96
Rating Gap
1.76
Exp. Goals PAN
0.83
Exp. Goals DOM
82.7%
PAN No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 4W/1W

Panama won 4 of their last 10 games; Dominican Republic won 1. Current form favours Panama.

H2H Dominance 7W-0W

Panama hold the historical edge: 7W-1D-0L across 8 meetings.

Rating Gap 96 pts

Panama hold a 96-point rating edge: roughly 14.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2009

Panama have a major tournament title to their name; Dominican Republic do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.92 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Underdog Record 17% W

Dominican Republic have won 17% of games entering as underdogs (15W from 88). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

8 meeting(s) · 1974-2026

7
PAN Win
1
Draws
0
DOM Win
18
Goals For
6
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
174
Games Played
93
42.0%
Win %
44.1%
1.40
Goals Per Game
1.68
1.29
Goals Against / Game
1.16
33.3%
Clean Sheet %
44.1%
32.8%
Failed to Score %
26.9%
8.0%
Goalless Draws %
7.5%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,517
Current Rating
1,421
#28
World Ranking
#82
52.6%
Win as Favourite
57.6%
23.2%
Win as Underdog
17.0%
5
Longest Win Streak
7
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
10
1536 (2025)
Peak Rating
1469 (2025)
7W-4L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

59.5% 23.2% 17.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 03 Jun 26 AWAY
4 - 2
Friendly
H 08 Jun 21 AWAY
3 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 03 Mar 87 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
D 28 Feb 87 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
A 27 Feb 87 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
A 25 Feb 87 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
H 21 May 86 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly Tournament
A 06 Mar 74 AWAY
1 - 3
Central American and Caribbean Games

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
13.3%
2 - 0
11.7%
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
9.6%
0 - 0
7.6%
3 - 0
6.8%