Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Belgium
72.6% win probability
Predicted winner
17.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.66 - 2.20
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Total goals

New Zealand

1435#67
OFC
VS

Belgium

1548#17
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

9.7% 17.6% 72.6%
NZL
BEL
113
Rating Gap
0.66
Exp. Goals NZL
2.20
Exp. Goals BEL
27.3%
NZL No Defeat
2.9
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 1W/6W

Belgium won 6 of their last 10 games; New Zealand won 1. Current form favours Belgium.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 113 pts

Belgium hold a 113-point rating edge: roughly 17.0% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.9 xG

Combined avg of 3.54 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.9 (Over 2.5 probability: 54%).

Tournament Pedigree 2024

New Zealand have a major tournament title to their name; Belgium do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Trajectory +33 pts

Belgium are gaining momentum recently (+33 pts). New Zealand have moved -75 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
NZL Win
0
Draws
1
BEL Win
1
Goals For
5
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
85
Games Played
130
42.4%
Win %
63.8%
1.59
Goals Per Game
2.45
1.04
Goals Against / Game
0.88
41.2%
Clean Sheet %
44.6%
35.3%
Failed to Score %
12.3%
9.4%
Goalless Draws %
4.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,435
Current Rating
1,548
#67
World Ranking
#17
57.4%
Win as Favourite
59.1%
25.8%
Win as Underdog
30.2%
7
Longest Win Streak
12
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
24
1549 (2025)
Peak Rating
1634 (2021)
1W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

9.7% 17.6% 72.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 26 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 5
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
13.9%
0 - 1
12.6%
0 - 3
10.1%
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 1
8.3%
1 - 3
6.7%