Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Norway
49.3% win probability
Predicted winner
24.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.66 - 1.14
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Total goals

Norway

1536#19
UEFA
VS

Sweden

1468#48
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

49.3% 24.4% 26.3%
NOR
SWE
68
Rating Gap
1.66
Exp. Goals NOR
1.14
Exp. Goals SWE
73.7%
NOR No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 6W/3W

Norway won 6 of their last 10 games; Sweden won 3. Current form favours Norway.

H2H Dominance 59W-27W

Sweden hold the historical edge: 59W-25D-27L across 111 meetings.

Underdog Record 32% W

Sweden have won 32% of games entering as underdogs (106W from 336). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 3.53 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 53%).

Rating Gap 68 pts

Norway hold a 68-point rating edge: roughly 10.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2013

Both teams are major tournament winners. Norway's most recent title: 1929. Sweden's most recent title: 2013.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

111 meeting(s) · 2004-2026

27
NOR Win
25
Draws
59
SWE Win
157
Goals For
281
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
101
Games Played
129
52.5%
Win %
48.8%
1.96
Goals Per Game
1.67
1.04
Goals Against / Game
1.12
38.6%
Clean Sheet %
37.2%
18.8%
Failed to Score %
23.3%
5.0%
Goalless Draws %
4.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,536
Current Rating
1,468
#19
World Ranking
#48
56.9%
Win as Favourite
56.8%
23.7%
Win as Underdog
31.5%
9
Longest Win Streak
11
17
Longest Unbeaten Run
18
1550 (2025)
Peak Rating
1549 (2005)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

49.3% 24.4% 26.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 01 Jun 26 AWAY
3 - 1
Friendly
H 12 Jun 22 AWAY
3 - 2
UEFA Nations League
A 05 Jun 22 AWAY
1 - 2
UEFA Nations League
D 08 Sep 19 AWAY
1 - 1
UEFA European Championship
D 26 Mar 19 AWAY
3 - 3
UEFA European Championship
D 13 Jun 17 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
D 08 Jun 15 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 14 Aug 13 AWAY
4 - 2
Friendly
A 08 Jun 05 AWAY
2 - 3
Friendly
A 22 Jan 04 NEUTRAL
0 - 3
Friendly Tournament

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.5%
1 - 0
10.1%
2 - 1
9.5%
2 - 0
8.3%
0 - 1
7.0%
1 - 2
6.6%