Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Norway
37.0% win probability
Predicted winner
27.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.26 - 1.24
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 46%
Total goals

Norway

1569#11
UEFA
VS

Senegal

1539#19
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

37.0% 27.0% 36.0%
NOR
SEN
30
Rating Gap
1.26
Exp. Goals NOR
1.24
Exp. Goals SEN
64.0%
NOR No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 14pp

Senegal keep 41.8% clean sheets vs Norway's 27.5%, a 14pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 2022

Both teams are major tournament winners. Norway's most recent title: 1929. Senegal's most recent title: 2022.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 2.92 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 46%).

Underdog Record 28% W

Senegal have won 28% of games entering as underdogs (71W from 256). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 24 games

Senegal's longest unbeaten run is 24 games vs Norway's 17. Senegal have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2006-2026

1
NOR Win
0
Draws
1
SEN Win
4
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
103
Games Played
166
53.4%
Win %
59.6%
1.99
Goals Per Game
1.59
1.05
Goals Against / Game
0.66
37.9%
Clean Sheet %
53.6%
18.4%
Failed to Score %
18.1%
4.9%
Goalless Draws %
9.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,569
Current Rating
1,539
#11
World Ranking
#19
57.0%
Win as Favourite
55.6%
23.8%
Win as Underdog
27.7%
9
Longest Win Streak
10
17
Longest Unbeaten Run
24
1569 (2026)
Peak Rating
1595 (2026)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
15W-13L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

37.0% 27.0% 36.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 22 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 01 Mar 06 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
10.3%
0 - 1
10.2%
0 - 0
8.2%
2 - 1
8.1%
1 - 2
8.0%