Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

France
59.5% win probability
Predicted winner
22.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.95 - 1.89
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 54%
Total goals

Norway

1533#20
UEFA
VS

France

1594#5
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

18.4% 22.1% 59.5%
NOR
FRA
61
Rating Gap
0.95
Exp. Goals NOR
1.89
Exp. Goals FRA
40.5%
NOR No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 16-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 5W for Norway, 7W for France, 4 draws. Never count either side out.

Win Streak 4 games

France are currently on a 4-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Clean Sheet Rate 8pp

France keep 35.8% clean sheets vs Norway's 27.6%, a 8pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 3.36 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 54%).

Recent Form 7W/8W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Norway 7/10, France 8/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Rating Gap 61 pts

France hold a 61-point rating edge: roughly 9.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

16 meeting(s) · 1970-2014

5
NOR Win
4
Draws
7
FRA Win
22
Goals For
22
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
99
Games Played
134
52.5%
Win %
67.2%
1.96
Goals Per Game
2.13
1.04
Goals Against / Game
0.87
39.4%
Clean Sheet %
43.3%
19.2%
Failed to Score %
15.7%
5.1%
Goalless Draws %
8.2%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,533
Current Rating
1,594
#20
World Ranking
#5
56.8%
Win as Favourite
59.6%
23.7%
Win as Underdog
33.7%
9
Longest Win Streak
14
17
Longest Unbeaten Run
30
1550 (2025)
Peak Rating
1651 (2018)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

18.4% 22.1% 59.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 27 May 14 AWAY
4 - 0
Friendly
H 11 Aug 10 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
D 25 Feb 98 AWAY
3 - 3
Friendly
D 22 Jul 95 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
D 05 Sep 89 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 28 Sep 88 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 14 Oct 87 AWAY
1 - 1
UEFA European Championship
H 16 Jun 87 AWAY
2 - 0
UEFA European Championship
A 08 Sep 71 AWAY
1 - 3
UEFA European Championship
H 11 Nov 70 AWAY
3 - 1
UEFA European Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
11.1%
1 - 1
10.5%
0 - 2
10.5%
1 - 2
9.9%
0 - 3
6.6%
1 - 3
6.2%