Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

England
75.1% win probability
Predicted winner
16.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.64 - 2.31
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.0
Over 2.5: 57%
Total goals

Norway

1542#16
UEFA
VS

England

1642#3
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

8.6% 16.3% 75.1%
NOR
ENG
100
Rating Gap
0.64
Exp. Goals NOR
2.31
Exp. Goals ENG
24.9%
NOR No Defeat
3.0
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 5W/8W

England won 8 of their last 10 games; Norway won 5. Current form favours England.

H2H Dominance 8W-2W

England hold the historical edge: 8W-3D-2L across 13 meetings.

Goal Patterns 3.0 xG

Combined avg of 3.75 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 3.0 (Over 2.5 probability: 57%).

Clean Sheet Rate 14pp

England keep 41.7% clean sheets vs Norway's 27.4%, a 14pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Rating Gap 100 pts

England hold a 100-point rating edge: roughly 15.0% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Win Streak 3 games

England are currently on a 3-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

13 meeting(s) · 1966-2026

2
NOR Win
3
Draws
8
ENG Win
8
Goals For
30
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
111
Games Played
144
52.3%
Win %
63.9%
1.95
Goals Per Game
2.14
1.12
Goals Against / Game
0.73
35.1%
Clean Sheet %
52.8%
17.1%
Failed to Score %
16.0%
4.5%
Goalless Draws %
8.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,542
Current Rating
1,642
#16
World Ranking
#3
57.2%
Win as Favourite
62.5%
23.8%
Win as Underdog
33.9%
9
Longest Win Streak
10
17
Longest Unbeaten Run
22
1584 (2026)
Peak Rating
1642 (2026)
0W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

8.6% 16.3% 75.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 11 Jul 26NEUTRAL
1 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 03 Sep 14
1 - 0
Friendly
A 26 May 12
0 - 1
Friendly
D 11 Oct 95
0 - 0
Friendly
D 22 May 94
0 - 0
Friendly
H 02 Jun 93
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 14 Oct 92
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 09 Sep 81
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 10 Sep 80
4 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 29 Jun 66
1 - 6
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
14.0%
0 - 1
12.1%
0 - 3
10.8%
1 - 2
8.9%
1 - 1
7.7%
1 - 3
6.9%